Turf to Dirt Horse Racing Angles and Handicapping Points

One of the most challenging aspects of horse racing handicapping is the change of surface from one race to another. Horses often race on dirt in one race then race on grass in their very next race. The same is true of horses going from a synthetic track surface to dirt or turf. Then there’s also the horse that raced on turf (grass) in its last race and is now going on the dirt. For the horse player who is trying to find a good bet by evaluating each runner, this switch can be very challenging.

Here are a few thoughts or horse racing angles you might want to consider while wrestling with these puzzles…

The two most important pieces in the horse racing puzzle are the horse, of course, and the trainer. Some might argue that the jockey is a top consideration and while I agree that the rider certainly has a lot to do with the horse’s success, it’s the trainer who conditions the horse and figures out a campaign for the runner and also the trainer who chooses and gives instructions to the rider. Therefore, I think the handicapper should spend more time and effort figuring out the trainer’s intent and motivation.

Ask yourself if the horse has had any races and success on dirt before. If the runner has had more success on the dirt than on turf then consider that the runner may improve from its last race based on its preference for dirt surfaces. On the other hand, if the horse has never raced on dirt, look at its breeding and see if the progeny of its sire and dam have had success on dirt. If these investigations don’t offer enough information for a solid opinion then the runner must be considered an unknown. When you have too many unknowns in a race it becomes unplayable, in my opinion.

There are trainers who prefer grass races and who only race on the dirt when they have a horse that cannot succeed on grass or when they think that a change of surface, from grass to dirt and then back to dirt again, may help that runner. Sometimes the variety will freshen the horse. As they say, “A change is as good as a rest.”

Of course, the opposite of a trainer who likes to race his horses on the grass is the trainer who has more success with dirt runners. Find a horse coming from the grass to dirt for such a trainer and you may find a horse that was being conditioned on the grass and that will now be sent for the win.